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Huracán Melilla vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huracán Melilla
Huracán Melilla
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
2/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 20Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Huracán Melilla14%
×Draw19%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracán Melilla
0.89
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
2.21

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno creates 148% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 110 away

creates per match

Huracán Melilla
0.33
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.16

allows per match

Huracán Melilla
3.27
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.45

finishing

Huracán Melilla+0.00on par
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracán Melilla ↓

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Huracán Melilla or draw
33%
Huracán Melilla or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
81%
Draw or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
86%

Winning margin

Huracán Melilla wins by 2+
4%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Huracán Melilla 1+ goals
59%
Huracán Melilla 2+ goals
22%
Huracán Melilla 3+ goals
6%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals
89%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals
65%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Huracán Melilla (draw refunded)
17%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracán Melilla at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.27 · 15 matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracán Melilla attack 0.33 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 0.89

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.16 + Huracán Melilla defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Huracán Melilla scores more
14%
level
19%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more
67%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Ciudad de Torredonjimeno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huracán Melilla vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno beat Huracán Melilla 6-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Espiguera in Melilla.