Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno vs Huracán Melilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Huracán Melilla
Huracán Melilla
10/8/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 5Estadio Matías Prats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno86%
×Draw9%
Huracán Melilla4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
3.22
Huracán Melilla
0.60

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno creates 437% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.77
Huracán Melilla
0.20

allows per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.00
Huracán Melilla
4.67

finishing

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par
Huracán Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno ↓

Huracán Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or draw
96%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or Huracán Melilla
91%
Draw or Huracán Melilla
14%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+
69%
Huracán Melilla wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals
96%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals
82%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals
61%
Huracán Melilla 1+ goals
45%
Huracán Melilla 2+ goals
12%
Huracán Melilla 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)
95%
Huracán Melilla (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

Huracán Melilla away — creates 0.20, concedes 4.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.77 + Huracán Melilla defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.22

Huracán Melilla attack 0.20 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more
86%
level
9%
Huracán Melilla scores more
4%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Ciudad de Torredonjimeno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ciudad de Torredonjimeno vs Huracán Melilla

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno beat Huracán Melilla 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Matías Prats in Torredonjimeno.