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Huracán Melilla vs Atlético Porcuna — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huracán Melilla
Huracán Melilla
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Porcuna
Atlético Porcuna
1/22/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 18Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Huracán Melilla17%
×Draw20%
Atlético Porcuna63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracán Melilla
1.01
Atlético Porcuna
2.13

Atlético Porcuna creates 111% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 94 away

creates per match

Huracán Melilla
0.33
Atlético Porcuna
0.99

allows per match

Huracán Melilla
3.27
Atlético Porcuna
1.69

finishing

Huracán Melilla+0.00on par
Atlético Porcuna+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracán Melilla ↓

Atlético Porcuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Huracán Melilla or draw
37%
Huracán Melilla or Atlético Porcuna
80%
Draw or Atlético Porcuna
83%

Winning margin

Huracán Melilla wins by 2+
6%
Atlético Porcuna wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Huracán Melilla 1+ goals
64%
Huracán Melilla 2+ goals
27%
Huracán Melilla 3+ goals
8%
Atlético Porcuna 1+ goals
88%
Atlético Porcuna 2+ goals
63%
Atlético Porcuna 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Huracán Melilla (draw refunded)
21%
Atlético Porcuna (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracán Melilla at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.27 · 15 matches

Atlético Porcuna away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.69 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracán Melilla attack 0.33 + Atlético Porcuna defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.01

Atlético Porcuna attack 0.99 + Huracán Melilla defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Huracán Melilla scores more
17%
level
20%
Atlético Porcuna scores more
63%

Atlético Porcuna at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Atlético Porcuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huracán Melilla vs Atlético Porcuna

Atlético Porcuna beat Huracán Melilla 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Espiguera in Melilla.