Atlético Porcuna 3–0 Huracán Melilla

Atlético Porcuna

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Huracán Melilla

9/24/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 3Estadio Municipal San Benito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Atlético Porcuna82%

×Draw12%

Huracán Melilla6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético PorcunaExpected goals in this matchHuracán Melilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.98

0.72

Atlético Porcuna

2.98

Huracán Melilla

0.72

Atlético Porcuna creates 314% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 15 away

1.29

creates per match

0.20

1.24

allows per match

4.67

creates per match

Atlético Porcuna

1.29

Huracán Melilla

0.20

allows per match

Atlético Porcuna

1.24

Huracán Melilla

4.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Porcuna+0.00on par

Huracán Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Porcuna ↓

Huracán Melilla →

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–08%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Atlético Porcuna or draw

94%

Atlético Porcuna or Huracán Melilla

88%

Draw or Huracán Melilla

18%

Winning margin

Atlético Porcuna wins by 2+

63%

Huracán Melilla wins by 2+

Team goals

Atlético Porcuna 1+ goals

95%

Atlético Porcuna 2+ goals

79%

Atlético Porcuna 3+ goals

56%

Huracán Melilla 1+ goals

51%

Huracán Melilla 2+ goals

16%

Huracán Melilla 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlético Porcuna (draw refunded)

93%

Huracán Melilla (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Porcuna at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

Huracán Melilla away — creates 0.20, concedes 4.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Porcuna attack 1.29 + Huracán Melilla defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 2.98

Huracán Melilla attack 0.20 + Atlético Porcuna defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 82%?"

Atlético Porcuna scores more

82%

level

12%

Huracán Melilla scores more

Atlético Porcuna at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Atlético Porcuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Porcuna vs Huracán Melilla

Atlético Porcuna beat Huracán Melilla 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Benito in Porcuna.

Atlético Porcuna vs Huracán Melilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Porcuna vs Huracán Melilla