Huracan Las Heras 0–3 Ciudad de Bolívar

Huracan Las Heras

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Ciudad de Bolívar

A. Troncoso 90+1', 77'

I. Roldán 35'

10/8/2023

Torneo Federal A · Group A - 34Estadio General San Martín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Huracan Las Heras41%

×Draw32%

Ciudad de Bolívar27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Huracan Las HerasExpected goals in this matchCiudad de Bolívar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.81

Huracan Las Heras

1.07

Ciudad de Bolívar

0.81

Huracan Las Heras creates 32% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 30 away

1.21

creates per match

0.70

0.92

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Huracan Las Heras

1.21

Ciudad de Bolívar

0.70

allows per match

Huracan Las Heras

0.92

Ciudad de Bolívar

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huracan Las Heras+0.00on par

Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan Las Heras ↓

Ciudad de Bolívar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Huracan Las Heras or draw

73%

Huracan Las Heras or Ciudad de Bolívar

68%

Draw or Ciudad de Bolívar

59%

Winning margin

Huracan Las Heras wins by 2+

17%

Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Huracan Las Heras 1+ goals

66%

Huracan Las Heras 2+ goals

29%

Huracan Las Heras 3+ goals

9%

Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals

56%

Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals

19%

Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Huracan Las Heras (draw refunded)

60%

Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan Las Heras at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.92 · 24 matches

Ciudad de Bolívar away — creates 0.70, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan Las Heras attack 1.21 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.07

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 0.70 + Huracan Las Heras defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Huracan Las Heras scores more

41%

level

32%

Ciudad de Bolívar scores more

27%

Huracan Las Heras at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Huracan Las Heras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

I. Roldán

57'

L. López← H. Tifner

57'

G. Leiva← B. Barrionuevo

65'

C. Olivera← G. Urquijo

68'

F. Suárez← I. Roldán

77'

T. Segovia← I. Pipistrelli

77'

A. Troncoso

82'

L. Leguizamón← A. Verdugo

83'

L. Vázquez← B. Duarte

90+1'

A. Troncoso

Huracan

Ciudad

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Abaurre

57'▲L. López←▼H. Tifner

57'▲G. Leiva←▼B. Barrionuevo

77'▲T. Segovia←▼I. Pipistrelli

82'▲L. Leguizamón←▼A. Verdugo

Huracan Las Heras substitutes

LópezLeivaSegoviaLeguizamón

Manager: M. Fernández

65'▲C. Olivera←▼G. Urquijo

68'▲F. Suárez←▼I. Roldán

83'▲L. Vázquez←▼B. Duarte

Ciudad de Bolívar substitutes

OliveraSuárezVázquez