Ciudad de Bolívar 3–1 Huracan Las Heras

Ciudad de Bolívar

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Huracan Las Heras

L. Lapetina 90'

K. Caraballo 38', 1'

E. Cerica 21'

3/15/2025

Torneo Federal A · Group 2 - 1Estadio Municipal Eva Peron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Ciudad de Bolívar60%

×Draw26%

Huracan Las Heras15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ciudad de BolívarExpected goals in this matchHuracan Las Heras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.60

Ciudad de Bolívar

1.52

Huracan Las Heras

0.60

Ciudad de Bolívar creates 153% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 22 away

1.67

creates per match

0.64

0.56

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Ciudad de Bolívar

1.67

Huracan Las Heras

0.64

allows per match

Ciudad de Bolívar

0.56

Huracan Las Heras

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par

Huracan Las Heras+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Bolívar ↓

Huracan Las Heras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ciudad de Bolívar or draw

85%

Ciudad de Bolívar or Huracan Las Heras

74%

Draw or Huracan Las Heras

40%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+

32%

Huracan Las Heras wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals

78%

Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals

45%

Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals

20%

Huracan Las Heras 1+ goals

45%

Huracan Las Heras 2+ goals

12%

Huracan Las Heras 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)

80%

Huracan Las Heras (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Bolívar at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.56 · 27 matches

Huracan Las Heras away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 1.67 + Huracan Las Heras defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.52

Huracan Las Heras attack 0.64 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ciudad de Bolívar scores more

60%

level

26%

Huracan Las Heras scores more

15%

Ciudad de Bolívar at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ciudad de Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

K. Caraballo

21'

E. Cerica

31'

E. Garcia

34'

I. Gonzalez← A. Munoz

38'

53'

53'

53'

56'

56'

56'

66'

T. Alegre← A. Gonzalez

66'

J. Maciel← K. Caraballo

78'

R. Perez← J. Pereyra

86'

F. Juarez← F. Cortes

88'

90'

L. Lapetina

Ciudad

Huracan

1

6

4

2

3

8

5

7

▼

Cortes

10

▼

Ortega

11

▼

Munoz

9

⚽

▼

1

4

6

2

3

⚽

Lapetina

10

▼

Gonzalez

8

Yeri

5

▼

Pereyra

11

Schonfeld

7

Duarte

9

⚽2

▼

Caraballo

Manager: D. Funes

66'▲T. Alegre←▼A. Gonzalez

66'▲J. Maciel←▼K. Caraballo

78'▲R. Perez←▼J. Pereyra

Ciudad de Bolívar substitutes

12Laborda13Pucheta14Lucero15Paz16Perez17Alegre18Maciel

Manager: G. Vallés

34'▲I. Gonzalez←▼A. Munoz

53'▲H. Tifner←▼L. Ortega

53'▲F. Agost←▼E. Cerica

86'▲F. Juarez←▼F. Cortes

Huracan Las Heras substitutes

12Grande13Aldunate14Aguilar15Tifner16Gonzalez17Juarez18Agost

Match Recap: Ciudad de Bolívar vs Huracan Las Heras

Ciudad de Bolívar beat Huracan Las Heras 3-1 in Torneo Federal A on March 15, 2025.

Goals: K. Caraballo (1', 38'), E. Cerica (21'), L. Lapetina (90').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Eva Peron in Bolivar.

Ciudad de Bolívar vs Huracan Las Heras — Torneo Federal A 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ciudad de Bolívar vs Huracan Las Heras