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Hunters vs Bayanzürkh Sporting — Premier League 2020

Hunters
Hunters
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bayanzürkh Sporting
Bayanzürkh Sporting
4/12/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hunters52%
×Draw19%
Bayanzürkh Sporting30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hunters
2.61
Bayanzürkh Sporting
1.97

Hunters creates 32% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 28 away

creates per match

Hunters
2.43
Bayanzürkh Sporting
2.29

allows per match

Hunters
1.65
Bayanzürkh Sporting
2.79

finishing

Hunters+0.00on par
Bayanzürkh Sporting+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hunters ↓

Bayanzürkh Sporting →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Hunters or draw
70%
Hunters or Bayanzürkh Sporting
81%
Draw or Bayanzürkh Sporting
48%

Winning margin

Hunters wins by 2+
32%
Bayanzürkh Sporting wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hunters 1+ goals
93%
Hunters 2+ goals
73%
Hunters 3+ goals
47%
Bayanzürkh Sporting 1+ goals
86%
Bayanzürkh Sporting 2+ goals
58%
Bayanzürkh Sporting 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Hunters (draw refunded)
64%
Bayanzürkh Sporting (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hunters at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

Bayanzürkh Sporting away — creates 2.29, concedes 2.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hunters attack 2.43 + Bayanzürkh Sporting defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.61

Bayanzürkh Sporting attack 2.29 + Hunters defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hunters scores more
52%
level
19%
Bayanzürkh Sporting scores more
30%

Hunters at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hunters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Hunters 1–1 Bayanzürkh Sporting

Hunters and Bayanzürkh Sporting drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.