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Bayanzürkh Sporting vs Hunters — Premier League 2020

Bayanzürkh Sporting
Bayanzürkh Sporting
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hunters
Hunters
7/1/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Bayanzürkh Sporting19%
×Draw17%
Hunters64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayanzürkh Sporting
1.41
Hunters
2.69

Hunters creates 91% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

creates per match

Bayanzürkh Sporting
1.15
Hunters
2.25

allows per match

Bayanzürkh Sporting
3.12
Hunters
1.67

finishing

Bayanzürkh Sporting+0.00on par
Hunters+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayanzürkh Sporting ↓

Hunters →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Bayanzürkh Sporting or draw
36%
Bayanzürkh Sporting or Hunters
83%
Draw or Hunters
81%

Winning margin

Bayanzürkh Sporting wins by 2+
8%
Hunters wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Bayanzürkh Sporting 1+ goals
76%
Bayanzürkh Sporting 2+ goals
41%
Bayanzürkh Sporting 3+ goals
17%
Hunters 1+ goals
93%
Hunters 2+ goals
74%
Hunters 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Bayanzürkh Sporting (draw refunded)
23%
Hunters (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayanzürkh Sporting at home — creates 1.15, concedes 3.12 · 26 matches

Hunters away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.67 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayanzürkh Sporting attack 1.15 + Hunters defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.41

Hunters attack 2.25 + Bayanzürkh Sporting defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Bayanzürkh Sporting scores more
19%
level
17%
Hunters scores more
64%

Hunters at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Hunters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bayanzürkh Sporting vs Hunters

Hunters beat Bayanzürkh Sporting 1-0 in Premier League on July 1, 2025.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulan Bator (Ulaanbaatar).