Hungary 2–0 Finland: Result & Stats

Hungary

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Finland

Ádám Nagy 37'

Ádám Szalai 29'

11/18/2018

UEFA Nations League · League C - 6Groupama Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Hungary46%

×Draw29%

Finland26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HungaryExpected goals in this matchFinland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.88

Hungary

1.28

Finland

0.88

Hungary creates 45% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

1.15

creates per match

0.75

1.00

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Hungary

1.15

Finland

0.75

allows per match

Hungary

1.00

Finland

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hungary+0.00on par

Finland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hungary ↓

Finland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Hungary or draw

74%

Hungary or Finland

71%

Draw or Finland

54%

Winning margin

Hungary wins by 2+

21%

Finland wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hungary 1+ goals

72%

Hungary 2+ goals

37%

Hungary 3+ goals

14%

Finland 1+ goals

59%

Finland 2+ goals

22%

Finland 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Hungary (draw refunded)

64%

Finland (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hungary at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Finland away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hungary attack 1.15 + Finland defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.28

Finland attack 0.75 + Hungary defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hungary scores more

46%

level

29%

Finland scores more

26%

Hungary at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hungary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Albin Granlund

29'

Ádám Szalai↳ Zsolt Kalmár

37'

Ádám Nagy

42'

Botond Baráth

46'

Paulo Vinícius← Tamás Kádár

46'

Joona Toivio← Albin Granlund

52'

Ádám Lang← Botond Baráth

54'

Filip Holender← Mihály Korhut

60'

Joni Kauko← Thomas Lam

74'

Petteri Forsell← Robert Taylor

75'

Ádám Lang

78'

Zsolt Kalmár

86'

Robin Lod

Possession

Shots

Statistics

HungaryFinland

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots6

2Corners2

17Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots6

7On Target2

5Off Target4

Passing

49%Possession51%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2