Finland 1–0 Hungary: Result & Stats

Finland

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hungary

Teemu Pukki 7'

9/8/2018

UEFA Nations League · League C - 1Tampere Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Finland43%

×Draw28%

Hungary28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FinlandExpected goals in this matchHungary

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.96

Finland

1.27

Hungary

0.96

Finland creates 32% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.08

creates per match

1.08

0.83

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Finland

1.08

Hungary

1.08

allows per match

Finland

0.83

Hungary

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finland+0.00on par

Hungary+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland ↓

Hungary →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Finland or draw

72%

Finland or Hungary

72%

Draw or Hungary

57%

Winning margin

Finland wins by 2+

20%

Hungary wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Finland 1+ goals

72%

Finland 2+ goals

36%

Finland 3+ goals

14%

Hungary 1+ goals

62%

Hungary 2+ goals

25%

Hungary 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Finland (draw refunded)

61%

Hungary (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finland at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Hungary away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finland attack 1.08 + Hungary defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Hungary attack 1.08 + Finland defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Finland scores more

43%

level

28%

Hungary scores more

28%

Finland at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Finland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Teemu Pukki↳ Rasmus Schüller

41'

Jere Uronen

45'

Ádám Szalai

45'

Albin Granlund← Jere Uronen

54'

Roland Varga← Zoltán Stieber

59'

Attila Fiola

61'

Zsolt Kalmár← István Kovács

63'

Gergő Lovrencsics

63'

Tim Sparv← Rasmus Schüller

68'

Tamás Kádár

73'

Márton Eppel← Roland Sallai

85'

Robert Taylor← Pyry Soiri

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FinlandHungary

Overview

44%Possession56%

6Total Shots12

0Corners4

15Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots12

2On Target3

4Off Target9

Passing

44%Possession56%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0