Hungary 1–0 England: Result & Stats

Hungary

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

England

D. Szoboszlai 66' (pen)

6/4/2022

UEFA Nations League · League A - 1Puskás Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hungary29%

×Draw30%

England41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HungaryExpected goals in this matchEngland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.13

Hungary

0.91

England

1.13

England creates 24% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.08

creates per match

1.18

1.08

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Hungary

1.08

England

1.18

allows per match

Hungary

1.08

England

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hungary+0.00on par

England+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hungary ↓

England →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Hungary or draw

59%

Hungary or England

70%

Draw or England

71%

Winning margin

Hungary wins by 2+

10%

England wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hungary 1+ goals

60%

Hungary 2+ goals

23%

Hungary 3+ goals

6%

England 1+ goals

68%

England 2+ goals

31%

England 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hungary (draw refunded)

42%

England (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hungary at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

England away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hungary attack 1.08 + England defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.91

England attack 1.18 + Hungary defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hungary scores more

29%

level

30%

England scores more

41%

England at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

P. Gulácsi

Hungary · G

7.6

Match Events

21'

46'

51'

62'

62'

J. Grealish← M. Mount

62'

R. James← T. Alexander-Arnold

64'

Reece James

66'

D. SzoboszlaiPenalty

71'

L. Kleinheisler← R. Sallai

79'

K. Phillips← C. Coady

82'

C. Styles← Á. Nagy

82'

A. Fiola← D. Szoboszlai

88'

B. Vécsei← Z. Nagy

88'

M. Ádám← Á. Szalai

89'

Péter Gulácsi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HungaryEngland

Overview

42%Possession58%

11Total Shots12

3Corners6

7Fouls6

Shots

11Total Shots12

6On Target4

3Off Target6

2Blocked2

6Inside Box11

5Outside Box1

Passing

42%Possession58%

385Total Passes526

310Accurate Passes447

81%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls6

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2