England 0–4 Hungary: Result & Stats

England

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Hungary

D. Gazdag 89'

Z. Nagy 80'

R. Sallai 70', 16'

6/14/2022

UEFA Nations League · League A - 4Molineux Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

England48%

×Draw24%

Hungary27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnglandExpected goals in this matchHungary

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.18

England

1.64

Hungary

1.18

England creates 39% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

1.82

creates per match

1.08

1.27

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

England

1.82

Hungary

1.08

allows per match

England

1.27

Hungary

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

England+0.00on par

Hungary+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

England ↓

Hungary →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

England or draw

73%

England or Hungary

76%

Draw or Hungary

52%

Winning margin

England wins by 2+

25%

Hungary wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

England 1+ goals

81%

England 2+ goals

49%

England 3+ goals

23%

Hungary 1+ goals

69%

Hungary 2+ goals

33%

Hungary 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

England (draw refunded)

64%

Hungary (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

England at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Hungary away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

England attack 1.82 + Hungary defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.64

Hungary attack 1.08 + England defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

England scores more

48%

level

24%

Hungary scores more

27%

England at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

R. Sallai

Hungary · F

8.3

Match Events

-5'

Bendegúz Bolla

16'

R. Sallai↳ Á. Lang

37'

John Stones

46'

R. Sterling← J. Bowen

56'

M. Mount← C. Gallagher

56'

D. Gazdag← D. Szoboszlai

56'

Á. Nagy← C. Styles

68'

P. Foden← J. Bellingham

68'

70'

78'

80'

82'

82'

85'

85'

89'

89'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EnglandHungary

Overview

69%Possession31%

10Total Shots6

6Corners0

13Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots6

2On Target5

6Off Target0

2Blocked1

7Inside Box4

3Outside Box2

Passing

69%Possession31%

614Total Passes285

546Accurate Passes221

89%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0