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Hungary vs Armenia — League #32 2026

Hungary
Hungary
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Armenia
Armenia
Z. Gruber 90'
D. Lukacs 56'
10/11/2025League #32League #32 · Group Stage - 7Puskas Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hungary36%
×Draw27%
Armenia36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hungary
1.25
Armenia
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hungary
1.50
Armenia
0.00

allows per match

Hungary
2.50
Armenia
1.00

finishing

Hungary+0.00on par
Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hungary ↓

Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hungary or draw
64%
Hungary or Armenia
73%
Draw or Armenia
64%

Winning margin

Hungary wins by 2+
16%
Armenia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hungary 1+ goals
71%
Hungary 2+ goals
36%
Hungary 3+ goals
13%
Armenia 1+ goals
71%
Armenia 2+ goals
36%
Armenia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hungary (draw refunded)
50%
Armenia (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hungary at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Armenia away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hungary attack 1.50 + Armenia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Armenia attack 0.00 + Hungary defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Hungary scores more
36%
level
27%
Armenia scores more
36%

Hungary at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Hungary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
W. OrbanHungaryHungary · D
7.7

Match Events

13'
Georgiy Harutyunyan
56'
D. Lukacs↳ B. Bolla
59'
Z. Shaghoyan← L. Zelarayan
59'
A. Serobyan← V. Bichakhchyan
63'
Z. Nagy← A. Toth
63'
Z. Gruber← D. Lukacs
75'
A. Osvath← B. Bolla
75'
M. Vitalis← C. Styles
79'
K. Muradyan← U. Iwu
79'
G. Ranos← T. Barseghyan
86'
A. Miranyan← G. Harutyunyan
90'
M. Dardai← M. Kerkez
90'
Z. Gruber

Possession

67%Hungary

Shots

13Hungary

Pass accuracy

53%Hungary

Statistics

HungaryArmenia
Overview
67%Possession33%
13Total Shots8
1.62Expected Goals (xG)0.45
10Corners1
9Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots8
4On Target2
6Off Target4
3Blocked2
9Inside Box4
4Outside Box4
Passing
67%Possession33%
605Total Passes305
531Accurate Passes238
88%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
5Offsides2

League #32: Hungary 2–0 Armenia

Hungary beat Armenia 2-0 in League #32 on October 11, 2025.

Goals: D. Lukacs (56'), Z. Gruber (90').

Hungary controlled possession (67%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Puskas Arena in Budapest.