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Armenia vs Hungary — League #32 2026

Armenia
Armenia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hungary
Hungary
B. Varga 33'
11/13/2025League #32League #32 · Group Stage - 9Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Armenia18%
×Draw22%
Hungary60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Armenia
0.96
Hungary
1.92

Hungary creates 100% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Armenia
0.67
Hungary
1.50

allows per match

Armenia
2.33
Hungary
1.25

finishing

Armenia+0.00on par
Hungary+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armenia ↓

Hungary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Armenia or draw
40%
Armenia or Hungary
78%
Draw or Hungary
82%

Winning margin

Armenia wins by 2+
6%
Hungary wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Armenia 1+ goals
62%
Armenia 2+ goals
25%
Armenia 3+ goals
7%
Hungary 1+ goals
85%
Hungary 2+ goals
57%
Hungary 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Armenia (draw refunded)
24%
Hungary (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armenia at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Hungary away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armenia attack 0.67 + Hungary defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.96

Hungary attack 1.50 + Armenia defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Armenia scores more
18%
level
22%
Hungary scores more
60%

Hungary at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hungary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
W. OrbanHungaryHungary · D
8.2

Match Events

33'
B. Varga↳ D. Szoboszlai
52'
Grant-Leon Ranos
61'
D. Lukacs← B. Bolla
70'
N. Grigoryan← Z. Shaghoyan
71'
M. Vitalis← C. Styles
71'
A. Toth← R. Sallai
76'
A. Serobyan← G. Ranos
76'
A. Eloyan← E. Sevikyan
77'
K. Nalbandyan← K. Hovhannisyan
83'
András Schäfer
86'
Z. Nagy← M. Kerkez
90'
N. Aghasaryan← K. Muradyan

Possession

48%Armenia

Shots

6Armenia

Pass accuracy

50%Armenia

Statistics

ArmeniaHungary
Overview
48%Possession52%
6Total Shots14
0.64Expected Goals (xG)1.31
2Corners7
18Fouls10
Shots
6Total Shots14
1On Target3
2Off Target6
3Blocked5
5Inside Box11
1Outside Box3
Passing
48%Possession52%
415Total Passes438
341Accurate Passes356
82%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
18Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

League #32: Armenia 0–1 Hungary

Hungary beat Armenia 1-0 in League #32 on November 13, 2025.

Goals: B. Varga (33').

Hungary controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium in Yerevan.