Hungary U19 1–1 Austria U19: Result & Stats

Hungary U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Austria U19

Á. Szendrei 34'

M. Huskovic 40'

10/12/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3ETO Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hungary U1943%

×Draw25%

Austria U1932%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hungary U19Expected goals in this matchAustria U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.29

Hungary U19

1.54

Austria U19

1.29

Hungary U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

2.19

creates per match

1.40

1.19

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Hungary U19

2.19

Austria U19

1.40

allows per match

Hungary U19

1.19

Austria U19

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hungary U19+0.00on par

Austria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hungary U19 ↓

Austria U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Hungary U19 or draw

68%

Hungary U19 or Austria U19

75%

Draw or Austria U19

57%

Winning margin

Hungary U19 wins by 2+

21%

Austria U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hungary U19 1+ goals

79%

Hungary U19 2+ goals

45%

Hungary U19 3+ goals

20%

Austria U19 1+ goals

72%

Austria U19 2+ goals

37%

Austria U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hungary U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Austria U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hungary U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Austria U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hungary U19 attack 2.19 + Austria U19 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.54

Austria U19 attack 1.40 + Hungary U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hungary U19 scores more

43%

level

25%

Austria U19 scores more

32%

Hungary U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hungary U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

40'

46'

54'

55'

61'

E. Havel← N. Veratschnig

68'

E. Metu← O. Babuscu

84'

Z. Gera← Á. Szendrei

88'

L. Coco← M. Huskovic

Hungary

Austria

21

5

3

20

16

18

13

6

7

⚽

▼

Huskovic

10

▼

Babuscu

22

▼

1

21

23

20

▼

5

14

8

3

19

▼

Vas

9

▼

Németh

10

⚽

▼

Szendrei

Manager: K. Timar

46'▲Z. Kerezsi←▼P. Fodor

54'▲M. Kovács←▼G. Vas

55'▲D. Redzic←▼D. Németh

84'▲Z. Gera←▼Á. Szendrei

Hungary U19 substitutes

11Kerezsi7Kovács17Redzic18Gera16Farkas6Sztojka4Török13Csinger12Molnár

Manager: M. Scherb

61'▲E. Havel←▼N. Veratschnig

68'▲E. Metu←▼O. Babuscu

88'▲L. Coco←▼M. Huskovic

Austria U19 substitutes

9Havel8Metu17Coco11Weixelbraun1Scherf4Ivkić14Querfeld15Wiesinger19Wydra