Hungary U19 2–1 Austria U19: Result & Stats

Hungary U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Austria U19

N. Tímári 90+4'

A. Torvund 21'

T. Anselm 13'

10/16/2018

UEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 3Globall Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hungary U1935%

×Draw25%

Austria U1940%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hungary U19Expected goals in this matchAustria U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.50

Hungary U19

1.40

Austria U19

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

2.00

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Hungary U19

1.00

Austria U19

1.00

allows per match

Hungary U19

2.00

Austria U19

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hungary U19+0.00on par

Austria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hungary U19 ↓

Austria U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Hungary U19 or draw

60%

Hungary U19 or Austria U19

75%

Draw or Austria U19

65%

Winning margin

Hungary U19 wins by 2+

16%

Austria U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hungary U19 1+ goals

75%

Hungary U19 2+ goals

41%

Hungary U19 3+ goals

17%

Austria U19 1+ goals

78%

Austria U19 2+ goals

44%

Austria U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Hungary U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Austria U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hungary U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Austria U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hungary U19 attack 1.00 + Austria U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Austria U19 attack 1.00 + Hungary U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hungary U19 scores more

35%

level

25%

Austria U19 scores more

40%

Austria U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Austria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

T. Anselm

21'

A. Torvund

90+4'

N. Tímári

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff