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Hünfelder SV vs Eintracht Stadtallendorf — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Hünfelder SV
Hünfelder SV
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
12/6/2025Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 20Rasenplatz Hünfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Hünfelder SV37%
×Draw23%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hünfelder SV
1.60
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 85 away

creates per match

Hünfelder SV
1.85
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
1.60

allows per match

Hünfelder SV
1.76
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
1.36

finishing

Hünfelder SV+0.00on par
Eintracht Stadtallendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hünfelder SV ↓

Eintracht Stadtallendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hünfelder SV or draw
60%
Hünfelder SV or Eintracht Stadtallendorf
77%
Draw or Eintracht Stadtallendorf
63%

Winning margin

Hünfelder SV wins by 2+
18%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Hünfelder SV 1+ goals
80%
Hünfelder SV 2+ goals
47%
Hünfelder SV 3+ goals
22%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 1+ goals
81%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 2+ goals
50%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Hünfelder SV (draw refunded)
48%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hünfelder SV at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.76 · 74 matches

Eintracht Stadtallendorf away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.36 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hünfelder SV attack 1.85 + Eintracht Stadtallendorf defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.60

Eintracht Stadtallendorf attack 1.60 + Hünfelder SV defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hünfelder SV scores more
37%
level
23%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf scores more
40%

Eintracht Stadtallendorf at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Eintracht Stadtallendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: Hünfelder SV 1–2 Eintracht Stadtallendorf

Eintracht Stadtallendorf beat Hünfelder SV 2-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on December 6, 2025.

The match was played at Rasenplatz Hünfeld in Hünfeld.