Eintracht Stadtallendorf 0–1 Hünfelder SV

Eintracht Stadtallendorf

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hünfelder SV

11/25/2023

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 19Kunstrasenplatz 1 Stadtallendorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Eintracht Stadtallendorf51%

×Draw22%

Hünfelder SV27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht StadtallendorfExpected goals in this matchHünfelder SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.37

Eintracht Stadtallendorf

1.94

Hünfelder SV

1.37

Eintracht Stadtallendorf creates 42% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 74 away

2.13

creates per match

1.50

1.24

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Eintracht Stadtallendorf

2.13

Hünfelder SV

1.50

allows per match

Eintracht Stadtallendorf

1.24

Hünfelder SV

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Stadtallendorf+0.00on par

Hünfelder SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Stadtallendorf ↓

Hünfelder SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Eintracht Stadtallendorf or draw

73%

Eintracht Stadtallendorf or Hünfelder SV

78%

Draw or Hünfelder SV

49%

Winning margin

Eintracht Stadtallendorf wins by 2+

29%

Hünfelder SV wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Eintracht Stadtallendorf 1+ goals

86%

Eintracht Stadtallendorf 2+ goals

58%

Eintracht Stadtallendorf 3+ goals

30%

Hünfelder SV 1+ goals

75%

Hünfelder SV 2+ goals

40%

Hünfelder SV 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Stadtallendorf (draw refunded)

65%

Hünfelder SV (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Stadtallendorf at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.24 · 85 matches

Hünfelder SV away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.74 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Stadtallendorf attack 2.13 + Hünfelder SV defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.94

Hünfelder SV attack 1.50 + Eintracht Stadtallendorf defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Eintracht Stadtallendorf scores more

51%

level

22%

Hünfelder SV scores more

27%

Eintracht Stadtallendorf at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Eintracht Stadtallendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff