Hünfelder SV 0–5 Bayern Alzenau: Result & Stats

Hünfelder SV

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Bayern Alzenau

8/3/2024

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 2Rasenplatz Hünfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Hünfelder SV37%

×Draw22%

Bayern Alzenau41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hünfelder SVExpected goals in this matchBayern Alzenau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.90

Hünfelder SV

1.78

Bayern Alzenau

1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 70 away

1.85

creates per match

2.03

1.76

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Hünfelder SV

1.85

Bayern Alzenau

2.03

allows per match

Hünfelder SV

1.76

Bayern Alzenau

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hünfelder SV+0.00on par

Bayern Alzenau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hünfelder SV ↓

Bayern Alzenau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Hünfelder SV or draw

59%

Hünfelder SV or Bayern Alzenau

78%

Draw or Bayern Alzenau

63%

Winning margin

Hünfelder SV wins by 2+

19%

Bayern Alzenau wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Hünfelder SV 1+ goals

83%

Hünfelder SV 2+ goals

53%

Hünfelder SV 3+ goals

26%

Bayern Alzenau 1+ goals

85%

Bayern Alzenau 2+ goals

56%

Bayern Alzenau 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Hünfelder SV (draw refunded)

47%

Bayern Alzenau (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hünfelder SV at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.76 · 74 matches

Bayern Alzenau away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hünfelder SV attack 1.85 + Bayern Alzenau defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.78

Bayern Alzenau attack 2.03 + Hünfelder SV defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hünfelder SV scores more

37%

level

22%

Bayern Alzenau scores more

41%

Bayern Alzenau at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bayern Alzenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff