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Bayern Alzenau vs Hünfelder SV — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Bayern Alzenau
Bayern Alzenau
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Hünfelder SV
Hünfelder SV
11/16/2024Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 20Sportzentrum Alzenau - Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Bayern Alzenau50%
×Draw23%
Hünfelder SV27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayern Alzenau
1.85
Hünfelder SV
1.31

Bayern Alzenau creates 41% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 74 away

creates per match

Bayern Alzenau
1.96
Hünfelder SV
1.50

allows per match

Bayern Alzenau
1.11
Hünfelder SV
1.74

finishing

Bayern Alzenau+0.00on par
Hünfelder SV+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Alzenau ↓

Hünfelder SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Bayern Alzenau or draw
73%
Bayern Alzenau or Hünfelder SV
77%
Draw or Hünfelder SV
50%

Winning margin

Bayern Alzenau wins by 2+
28%
Hünfelder SV wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bayern Alzenau 1+ goals
84%
Bayern Alzenau 2+ goals
55%
Bayern Alzenau 3+ goals
28%
Hünfelder SV 1+ goals
73%
Hünfelder SV 2+ goals
38%
Hünfelder SV 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bayern Alzenau (draw refunded)
65%
Hünfelder SV (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Alzenau at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

Hünfelder SV away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.74 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Alzenau attack 1.96 + Hünfelder SV defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.85

Hünfelder SV attack 1.50 + Bayern Alzenau defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bayern Alzenau scores more
50%
level
23%
Hünfelder SV scores more
27%

Bayern Alzenau at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bayern Alzenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bayern Alzenau vs Hünfelder SV

Hünfelder SV beat Bayern Alzenau 2-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Alzenau - Platz 2 in Alzenau.