Hunan Billows FC 0–1 Guangzhou E-Power

Hunan Billows FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Guangzhou E-Power

6/2/2024

League Two · Round 10Loudi Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hunan Billows FC21%

×Draw24%

Guangzhou E-Power56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hunan Billows FCExpected goals in this matchGuangzhou E-Power

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.74

Hunan Billows FC

0.96

Guangzhou E-Power

1.74

Guangzhou E-Power creates 81% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 14 away

1.22

creates per match

1.57

1.91

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Hunan Billows FC

1.22

Guangzhou E-Power

1.57

allows per match

Hunan Billows FC

1.91

Guangzhou E-Power

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par

Guangzhou E-Power+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hunan Billows FC ↓

Guangzhou E-Power →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hunan Billows FC or draw

44%

Hunan Billows FC or Guangzhou E-Power

76%

Draw or Guangzhou E-Power

79%

Winning margin

Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+

7%

Guangzhou E-Power wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals

62%

Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals

25%

Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals

7%

Guangzhou E-Power 1+ goals

82%

Guangzhou E-Power 2+ goals

52%

Guangzhou E-Power 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)

27%

Guangzhou E-Power (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hunan Billows FC at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

Guangzhou E-Power away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hunan Billows FC attack 1.22 + Guangzhou E-Power defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.96

Guangzhou E-Power attack 1.57 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hunan Billows FC scores more

21%

level

24%

Guangzhou E-Power scores more

56%

Guangzhou E-Power at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Guangzhou E-Power will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff