Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Guangzhou E-Power vs Hunan Billows FC — League Two 2022

Guangzhou E-Power
Guangzhou E-Power
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
3/23/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 1Huadu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guangzhou E-Power66%
×Draw21%
Hunan Billows FC13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou E-Power
1.96
Hunan Billows FC
0.72

Guangzhou E-Power creates 172% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 33 away

creates per match

Guangzhou E-Power
2.00
Hunan Billows FC
0.94

allows per match

Guangzhou E-Power
0.50
Hunan Billows FC
1.91

finishing

Guangzhou E-Power+0.00on par
Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou E-Power ↓

Hunan Billows FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Guangzhou E-Power or draw
87%
Guangzhou E-Power or Hunan Billows FC
79%
Draw or Hunan Billows FC
34%

Winning margin

Guangzhou E-Power wins by 2+
41%
Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Guangzhou E-Power 1+ goals
86%
Guangzhou E-Power 2+ goals
58%
Guangzhou E-Power 3+ goals
31%
Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
51%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
16%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou E-Power (draw refunded)
84%
Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou E-Power at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

Hunan Billows FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou E-Power attack 2.00 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.96

Hunan Billows FC attack 0.94 + Guangzhou E-Power defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Guangzhou E-Power scores more
66%
level
21%
Hunan Billows FC scores more
13%

Guangzhou E-Power at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Guangzhou E-Power will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Guangzhou E-Power 1–0 Hunan Billows FC

Guangzhou E-Power beat Hunan Billows FC 1-0 in League Two on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Huadu Stadium in Guangzhou.