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Hunan Billows FC vs Guangxi Lanhang — League Two 2022

Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
5/12/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 8Loudi Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Hunan Billows FC36%
×Draw26%
Guangxi Lanhang38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hunan Billows FC
1.36
Guangxi Lanhang
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 40 away

creates per match

Hunan Billows FC
1.22
Guangxi Lanhang
0.88

allows per match

Hunan Billows FC
1.91
Guangxi Lanhang
1.50

finishing

Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par
Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hunan Billows FC ↓

Guangxi Lanhang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hunan Billows FC or draw
62%
Hunan Billows FC or Guangxi Lanhang
74%
Draw or Guangxi Lanhang
64%

Winning margin

Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
16%
Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
74%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
39%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
16%
Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
75%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
41%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
49%
Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hunan Billows FC at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

Guangxi Lanhang away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hunan Billows FC attack 1.22 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.88 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hunan Billows FC scores more
36%
level
26%
Guangxi Lanhang scores more
38%

Guangxi Lanhang at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guangxi Lanhang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hunan Billows FC vs Guangxi Lanhang

Hunan Billows FC beat Guangxi Lanhang 2-1 in League Two on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Loudi Sports Center in Loudi.