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Guangxi Lanhang vs Hunan Billows FC — League Two 2022

Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
7/15/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 11Liuzhou Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Guangxi Lanhang38%
×Draw26%
Hunan Billows FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangxi Lanhang
1.35
Hunan Billows FC
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 33 away

creates per match

Guangxi Lanhang
0.80
Hunan Billows FC
0.94

allows per match

Guangxi Lanhang
1.70
Hunan Billows FC
1.91

finishing

Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par
Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Lanhang ↓

Hunan Billows FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Guangxi Lanhang or draw
64%
Guangxi Lanhang or Hunan Billows FC
74%
Draw or Hunan Billows FC
62%

Winning margin

Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
17%
Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
74%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
39%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
15%
Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
73%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
38%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
51%
Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Lanhang at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

Hunan Billows FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.80 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.35

Hunan Billows FC attack 0.94 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Guangxi Lanhang scores more
38%
level
26%
Hunan Billows FC scores more
36%

Guangxi Lanhang at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guangxi Lanhang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guangxi Lanhang vs Hunan Billows FC

Guangxi Lanhang beat Hunan Billows FC 1-0 in League Two on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at Liuzhou Sports Center Stadium in Liuzhou.