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Hunan Billows FC vs Guangxi Hengchen — League Two 2022

Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Guangxi Hengchen
Guangxi Hengchen
4/10/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 4Loudi Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Hunan Billows FC20%
×Draw24%
Guangxi Hengchen56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hunan Billows FC
0.95
Guangxi Hengchen
1.75

Guangxi Hengchen creates 84% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 29 away

creates per match

Hunan Billows FC
1.22
Guangxi Hengchen
1.59

allows per match

Hunan Billows FC
1.91
Guangxi Hengchen
0.69

finishing

Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par
Guangxi Hengchen+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hunan Billows FC ↓

Guangxi Hengchen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hunan Billows FC or draw
44%
Hunan Billows FC or Guangxi Hengchen
76%
Draw or Guangxi Hengchen
80%

Winning margin

Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
7%
Guangxi Hengchen wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
61%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
25%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
7%
Guangxi Hengchen 1+ goals
83%
Guangxi Hengchen 2+ goals
52%
Guangxi Hengchen 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
27%
Guangxi Hengchen (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hunan Billows FC at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

Guangxi Hengchen away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hunan Billows FC attack 1.22 + Guangxi Hengchen defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.95

Guangxi Hengchen attack 1.59 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hunan Billows FC scores more
20%
level
24%
Guangxi Hengchen scores more
56%

Guangxi Hengchen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Guangxi Hengchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Hunan Billows FC 1–2 Guangxi Hengchen

Guangxi Hengchen beat Hunan Billows FC 2-1 in League Two on April 10, 2024.

The match was played at Loudi Sports Center in Loudi.