Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Guangxi Hengchen vs Hunan Billows FC — League Two 2022

Guangxi Hengchen
Guangxi Hengchen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
6/24/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 13Nanning Sports School Wuhe Campus Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Guangxi Hengchen60%
×Draw22%
Hunan Billows FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangxi Hengchen
1.85
Hunan Billows FC
0.90

Guangxi Hengchen creates 106% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 33 away

creates per match

Guangxi Hengchen
1.79
Hunan Billows FC
0.94

allows per match

Guangxi Hengchen
0.86
Hunan Billows FC
1.91

finishing

Guangxi Hengchen+0.00on par
Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Hengchen ↓

Hunan Billows FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Guangxi Hengchen or draw
82%
Guangxi Hengchen or Hunan Billows FC
78%
Draw or Hunan Billows FC
40%

Winning margin

Guangxi Hengchen wins by 2+
35%
Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Guangxi Hengchen 1+ goals
84%
Guangxi Hengchen 2+ goals
55%
Guangxi Hengchen 3+ goals
28%
Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
59%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
23%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Hengchen (draw refunded)
77%
Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Hengchen at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

Hunan Billows FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Hengchen attack 1.79 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.85

Hunan Billows FC attack 0.94 + Guangxi Hengchen defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Guangxi Hengchen scores more
60%
level
22%
Hunan Billows FC scores more
18%

Guangxi Hengchen at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Guangxi Hengchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guangxi Hengchen vs Hunan Billows FC

Guangxi Hengchen and Hunan Billows FC drew 1-1 in League Two on June 24, 2024.

The match was played at Nanning Sports School Wuhe Campus Football Field in Nanning.