Humaitá 2–4 GAS: Result & Stats | Serie D

Humaitá

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

GAS

Thalis 56'

G. Pereira 7'

N. Reina 87'

Gabriel Goncalves 62'

T. Patrick 34'

Genilson 1'

5/18/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 5Arena Acreana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Humaitá33%

×Draw24%

GAS43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HumaitáExpected goals in this matchGAS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.63

Humaitá

1.42

GAS

1.63

GAS creates 15% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 20 away

0.79

creates per match

0.90

2.36

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Humaitá

0.79

GAS

0.90

allows per match

Humaitá

2.36

GAS

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Humaitá+0.00on par

GAS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humaitá ↓

GAS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Humaitá or draw

57%

Humaitá or GAS

76%

Draw or GAS

67%

Winning margin

Humaitá wins by 2+

15%

GAS wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Humaitá 1+ goals

76%

Humaitá 2+ goals

41%

Humaitá 3+ goals

17%

GAS 1+ goals

80%

GAS 2+ goals

48%

GAS 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Humaitá (draw refunded)

44%

GAS (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humaitá at home — creates 0.79, concedes 2.36 · 33 matches

GAS away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.05 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humaitá attack 0.79 + GAS defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.42

GAS attack 0.90 + Humaitá defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Humaitá scores more

33%

level

24%

GAS scores more

43%

GAS at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "GAS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

Genilson

7'

G. Pereira

34'

T. Patrick

56'

Thalis

62'

Gabriel Goncalves

87'

N. Reina

Humaitá

GAS

⚽

⚽

⚽

Manager: Erismeu

Humaitá substitutes

OgbeNegoAlêRodrigoFerstDanylloJulianoTKSayukAsafWallace

Manager: Chiquinho Viana

GAS substitutes

ReinaMarudáVitinhoDiguinhoLisboaMeloAthosDioneCardosoJorelLopesHenrique

Serie D: Humaitá 2–4 GAS

GAS beat Humaitá 4-2 in Serie D on May 18, 2025.

Goals: Genilson (1'), G. Pereira (7'), T. Patrick (34'), Thalis (56'), Gabriel Goncalves (62'), N. Reina (87').

The match was played at Arena Acreana in Rio Branco, Acre.

Humaitá vs GAS — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie D: Humaitá 2–4 GAS