Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

GAS vs Humaitá — Serie D 2026

GAS
GAS
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Humaitá
Humaitá
Elmi 90', 77'
Carlos Gabriel 90', 43'
6/28/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Flamarion Vasconcelos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

GAS62%
×Draw20%
Humaitá18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GAS
2.21
Humaitá
1.11

GAS creates 99% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 33 away

creates per match

GAS
1.20
Humaitá
0.73

allows per match

GAS
1.50
Humaitá
3.21

finishing

GAS+0.00on par
Humaitá+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GAS ↓

Humaitá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

GAS or draw
82%
GAS or Humaitá
80%
Draw or Humaitá
38%

Winning margin

GAS wins by 2+
39%
Humaitá wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

GAS 1+ goals
89%
GAS 2+ goals
65%
GAS 3+ goals
38%
Humaitá 1+ goals
67%
Humaitá 2+ goals
30%
Humaitá 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

GAS (draw refunded)
77%
Humaitá (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GAS at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

Humaitá away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GAS attack 1.20 + Humaitá defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.21

Humaitá attack 0.73 + GAS defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

GAS scores more
62%
level
20%
Humaitá scores more
18%

GAS at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "GAS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
Carlos Gabriel
77'
Elmi
90+2'
90'
Elmi
90'
Carlos Gabriel
GAS
Humaitá
Chiquinho Viana
Manager: Chiquinho Viana
Erismeu
Manager: Erismeu

GAS 2 – 1 Humaitá

GAS beat Humaitá 2-1 in Serie D on June 28, 2025.

Goals: Carlos Gabriel (43', 90'), Elmi (77', 90').

The match was played at Estádio Flamarion Vasconcelos in Boa Vista, Roraima.