Hull City 1–2 West Brom: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

West Brom

João Pedro 40'

J. Maja 17'

K. Ahearne-Grant 12'

11/10/2024

Championship · Round 15The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 39+ matches

Hull City37%

×Draw27%

West Brom36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.27

Hull City

1.29

West Brom

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 39 away

1.39

creates per match

1.19

1.36

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Hull City

1.39

West Brom

1.19

allows per match

Hull City

1.36

West Brom

1.19

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Hull City-0.08on par

West Brom-0.09on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

64%

Hull City or West Brom

73%

Draw or West Brom

63%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

16%

West Brom wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

72%

Hull City 2+ goals

37%

Hull City 3+ goals

14%

West Brom 1+ goals

72%

West Brom 2+ goals

36%

West Brom 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

51%

West Brom (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.19 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.39 + West Brom defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

West Brom attack 1.19 + Hull City defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hull City scores more

37%

level

27%

West Brom scores more

36%

Hull City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

D. Furlong

West Brom · D

7.9

Match Events

12'

K. Ahearne-Grant↳ M. Johnston

17'

J. Maja↳ D. Furlong

35'

Darnell Furlong

40'

João Pedro↳ C. Hughes

54'

G. Diangana← J. Maja

54'

L. Dobbin← T. Fellows

56'

Callum Styles

63'

Abdülkadir Ömür

65'

U. Račić← A. Mowatt

70'

R. Longman← M. Burstow

79'

O. Diakité← M. Johnston

79'

J. Wallace← K. Ahearne-Grant

82'

K. Palmer← X. Simons

90'

C. Bedia← G. Puerta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullWest

Overview

67%Possession33%

13Total Shots5

1.16Expected Goals (xG)1.17

4Corners3

16Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots5

3On Target3

5Off Target1

5Blocked1

8Inside Box5

5Outside Box0

Passing

67%Possession33%

583Total Passes295

513Accurate Passes224

88%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-0.20Goals Prevented-0.20

Discipline

16Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1