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Hull City vs West Brom — Championship 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
West Brom
West Brom
D. O'Shea 57' (OG)
B. Tetteh 33'
3/3/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 35The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 53+ matches

Hull City38%
×Draw27%
West Brom35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.27
West Brom
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 55 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.31
West Brom
1.15

allows per match

Hull City
1.27
West Brom
1.23

finishing

Hull City-0.12scores less
West Brom-0.04on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
65%
Hull City or West Brom
73%
Draw or West Brom
62%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
17%
West Brom wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
72%
Hull City 2+ goals
36%
Hull City 3+ goals
14%
West Brom 1+ goals
70%
West Brom 2+ goals
34%
West Brom 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
52%
West Brom (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.27 · 53 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.31 + West Brom defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

West Brom attack 1.15 + Hull City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hull City scores more
38%
level
27%
West Brom scores more
35%

Hull City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
K. DarlowHull CityHull City · G
8.7

Match Events

33'
B. Tetteh↳ R. Slater
52'
Jayson Molumby
57'
D. O'SheaOwn goal
58'
N. Chalobah← D. Furlong
64'
Ó. Estupiñán← B. Tetteh
65'
A. Reach← C. Townsend
65'
T. Gardner-Hickman← J. Molumby
76'
A. Sayyadmanesh← R. Longman
80'
R. Richards← E. Pieters
85'
J. Greaves← O. Tufan
90+4'
Taylor Gardner-Hickman

Possession

30%Hull

Shots

8Hull

Pass accuracy

45%Hull

Statistics

HullWest
Overview
30%Possession70%
8Total Shots21
4Corners6
12Fouls8
Shots
8Total Shots21
2On Target6
1Off Target12
5Blocked3
5Inside Box18
3Outside Box3
Passing
30%Possession70%
275Total Passes635
198Accurate Passes558
72%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
6Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls8
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Hull City vs West Brom

Hull City beat West Brom 2-0 in Championship on March 3, 2023.

Goals: B. Tetteh (33'), D. O'Shea (57' o.g.).

West Brom controlled possession (70%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.