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Hull City vs Leeds — Championship 2025

Hull City
Hull City
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Leeds
Leeds
A. Kamara 89', 5'
João Pedro 81'
J. Piroe 72'
D. James 62'
A. Tanaka 46'
1/4/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 26The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hull City33%
×Draw24%
Leeds43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.38
Leeds
1.62

Leeds creates 17% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 11 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.12
Leeds
1.91

allows per match

Hull City
1.33
Leeds
1.64

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Leeds+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Leeds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
57%
Hull City or Leeds
76%
Draw or Leeds
67%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
15%
Leeds wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
75%
Hull City 2+ goals
40%
Hull City 3+ goals
16%
Leeds 1+ goals
80%
Leeds 2+ goals
48%
Leeds 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
43%
Leeds (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.12 + Leeds defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

Leeds attack 1.91 + Hull City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hull City scores more
33%
level
24%
Leeds scores more
43%

Leeds at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
E. AmpaduLeedsLeeds · D
7.7

Match Events

5'
A. Kamara↳ M. Burstow
46'
A. Tanaka↳ M. Solomon
62'
D. James↳ J. Bogle
66'
S. Byram← M. Wöber
67'
H. Vaughan← M. Burstow
68'
X. Simons← S. Alzate
72'
J. Piroe
81'
João Pedro
83'
Joe Rodon
89'
A. Kamara
90+3'
F. Burns← G. Puerta
90+3'
T. Sellars-Fleming← A. Kamara
90+1'
Mateo Joseph← J. Piroe
90+1'
J. Guilavogui← J. Rothwell

Possession

40%Hull

Shots

15Hull

Pass accuracy

45%Hull

Statistics

HullLeeds
Overview
40%Possession60%
15Total Shots17
2.35Expected Goals (xG)2.15
5Corners7
14Fouls9
Shots
15Total Shots17
6On Target9
5Off Target4
4Blocked4
8Inside Box13
7Outside Box4
Passing
40%Possession60%
302Total Passes453
211Accurate Passes390
70%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
-0.73Goals Prevented-0.73
Discipline
14Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Championship: Hull City 3–3 Leeds

Hull City and Leeds drew 3-3 in Championship on January 4, 2025.

Goals: A. Kamara (5', 89'), A. Tanaka (46'), D. James (62'), J. Piroe (72'), João Pedro (81').

Leeds controlled possession (60%) and registered 17 shots to 15.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.