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Hull City vs Gillingham — League One 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gillingham
Gillingham
T. Eaves 9'
O. Lee 67'
3/27/2021League OneLeague One · Round 38KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hull City48%
×Draw28%
Gillingham24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.38
Gillingham
0.89

Hull City creates 55% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 99 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.39
Gillingham
1.17

allows per match

Hull City
0.61
Gillingham
1.38

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
76%
Hull City or Gillingham
72%
Draw or Gillingham
52%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
23%
Gillingham wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
75%
Hull City 2+ goals
40%
Hull City 3+ goals
16%
Gillingham 1+ goals
59%
Gillingham 2+ goals
22%
Gillingham 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
67%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.39 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Gillingham attack 1.17 + Hull City defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hull City scores more
48%
level
28%
Gillingham scores more
24%

Hull City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
G. HoneymanHull CityHull City · M
7.9

Match Events

9'
T. Eaves↳ M. Wilks
37'
Jacob Greaves
61'
O. Lee← J. Akinde
64'
Stuart O'Keefe
67'
O. Lee↳ J. Tucker
71'
Alex MacDonald
79'
J. Scott← T. Eaves
82'
R. McKenzie← A. MacDonald
85'
D. Samuel← J. Graham
90'
Thomas O'Connor
90+3'
S. McLoughlin← A. Jones

Possession

58%Hull

Shots

14Hull

Pass accuracy

55%Hull

Statistics

HullGillingham
Overview
58%Possession42%
14Total Shots12
4Corners6
11Fouls16
Shots
14Total Shots12
3On Target1
8Off Target6
3Blocked5
13Inside Box9
1Outside Box3
Passing
58%Possession42%
374Total Passes263
295Accurate Passes168
79%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls16
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Hull City vs Gillingham

Hull City and Gillingham drew 1-1 in League One on March 27, 2021.

Goals: T. Eaves (9'), O. Lee (67').

Hull City controlled possession (58%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at KCOM Stadium in Hull.