Gillingham 0–2 Hull City: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hull City

J. Magennis 82'

K. Lewis-Potter 3'

9/12/2020

League One · Round 1Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Gillingham24%

×Draw23%

Hull City53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.78

Gillingham

1.11

Hull City

1.78

Hull City creates 60% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 23 away

1.19

creates per match

2.09

1.48

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Gillingham

1.19

Hull City

2.09

allows per match

Gillingham

1.48

Hull City

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

47%

Gillingham or Hull City

77%

Draw or Hull City

76%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

9%

Hull City wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

67%

Gillingham 2+ goals

30%

Gillingham 3+ goals

10%

Hull City 1+ goals

83%

Hull City 2+ goals

53%

Hull City 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

31%

Hull City (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Hull City away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.19 + Hull City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Hull City attack 2.09 + Gillingham defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gillingham scores more

24%

level

23%

Hull City scores more

53%

Hull City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

G. Honeyman

Hull City · M

8.2

Match Events

3'

K. Lewis-Potter↳ G. Honeyman

46'

S. Robertson← J. Mellis

46'

V. Oliver← T. Coyle

64'

M. Willock← K. Dempsey

73'

73'

73'

82'

82'

J. Magennis↳ G. Honeyman

83'

J. Scott← J. Magennis

83'

D. Batty← G. Honeyman

88'

C. Jones← G. Docherty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamHull

Overview

43%Possession57%

6Total Shots16

4Corners4

17Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots16

1On Target6

4Off Target7

1Blocked3

2Inside Box12

4Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

230Total Passes311

121Accurate Passes195

53%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0