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Hull City vs Doncaster — League One 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Doncaster
Doncaster
12/2/2020League OneLeague One · Round 15KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hull City52%
×Draw26%
Doncaster22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.50
Doncaster
0.87

Hull City creates 72% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 108 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.39
Doncaster
1.13

allows per match

Hull City
0.61
Doncaster
1.61

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Doncaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
78%
Hull City or Doncaster
74%
Draw or Doncaster
48%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
27%
Doncaster wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
78%
Hull City 2+ goals
44%
Hull City 3+ goals
19%
Doncaster 1+ goals
58%
Doncaster 2+ goals
22%
Doncaster 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
70%
Doncaster (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.39 + Doncaster defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Doncaster attack 1.13 + Hull City defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hull City scores more
52%
level
26%
Doncaster scores more
22%

Hull City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hull City vs Doncaster

Hull City beat Doncaster 2-1 in League One on December 2, 2020.

The match was played at KCOM Stadium in Hull.