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Doncaster vs Hull City — League One 2018

Doncaster
Doncaster
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Hull City
Hull City
2/20/2021League OneLeague One · Round 30The Keepmoat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Doncaster28%
×Draw24%
Hull City48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doncaster
1.22
Hull City
1.66

Hull City creates 36% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 23 away

creates per match

Doncaster
1.40
Hull City
2.09

allows per match

Doncaster
1.23
Hull City
1.04

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par
Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw
52%
Doncaster or Hull City
76%
Draw or Hull City
72%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+
12%
Hull City wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals
70%
Doncaster 2+ goals
34%
Doncaster 3+ goals
12%
Hull City 1+ goals
81%
Hull City 2+ goals
49%
Hull City 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)
37%
Hull City (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Hull City away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.40 + Hull City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.22

Hull City attack 2.09 + Doncaster defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Doncaster scores more
28%
level
24%
Hull City scores more
48%

Hull City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Doncaster vs Hull City

Doncaster and Hull City drew 3-3 in League One on February 20, 2021.

The match was played at The Keepmoat Stadium in Doncaster, South Yorkshire.