Hull City 4–2 Derby: Result & Stats | Championship

Hull City

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Derby

L. Koumas 84'

J. Egan 75'

O. McBurnie 39'

C. Elder 9' (OG)

S. Szmodics 42'

C. Forsyth 17'

2/24/2026

Championship · Round 34MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Hull City39%

×Draw27%

Derby34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.22

Hull City

1.33

Derby

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 27 away

1.31

creates per match

1.08

1.36

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Hull City

1.31

Derby

1.08

allows per match

Hull City

1.36

Derby

1.35

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Hull City-0.02on par

Derby+0.18scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

66%

Hull City or Derby

73%

Draw or Derby

61%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

18%

Derby wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

74%

Hull City 2+ goals

38%

Hull City 3+ goals

15%

Derby 1+ goals

70%

Derby 2+ goals

34%

Derby 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

54%

Derby (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Derby away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.35 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.31 + Derby defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Derby attack 1.08 + Hull City defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hull City scores more

39%

level

27%

Derby scores more

34%

Hull City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

O. McBurnie

Hull City · F

8.0

Match Events

2'

Patrick Agyemang

9'

C. ElderOwn goal

17'

C. Forsyth

39'

O. McBurnie↳ J. Gelhardt

42'

S. Szmodics

46'

J. Ward← C. Elder

53'

60'

60'

75'

79'

C. Morris← B. Brereton Diaz

79'

R. Brewster← D. Ozoh

82'

L. Koumas← J. Gelhardt

82'

P. McNair← L. Millar

84'

L. Koumas↳ K. Joseph

89'

K. Dowell← O. McBurnie

90+5'

Kyle Joseph

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullDerby

Overview

50%Possession50%

9Total Shots18

0.58Expected Goals (xG)3.38

7Corners3

19Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots18

3On Target6

3Off Target10

3Blocked2

6Inside Box14

3Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

277Total Passes292

161Accurate Passes174

58%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

-2.88Goals Prevented-2.88

Discipline

19Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2