Derby 1–1 Hull City: Result & Stats | Championship

Derby

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hull City

D. Brown 66'

X. Simons 57'

10/26/2024

Championship · Round 12Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Derby44%

×Draw27%

Hull City30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.10

Derby

1.39

Hull City

1.10

Derby creates 26% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 35 away

1.24

creates per match

1.19

1.02

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Derby

1.24

Hull City

1.19

allows per match

Derby

1.02

Hull City

1.54

+0.06on par

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Derby+0.06on par

Hull City+0.04on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Derby or draw

70%

Derby or Hull City

73%

Draw or Hull City

56%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

21%

Hull City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

75%

Derby 2+ goals

40%

Derby 3+ goals

16%

Hull City 1+ goals

67%

Hull City 2+ goals

30%

Hull City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

59%

Hull City (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.02 · 37 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.54 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.24 + Hull City defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.39

Hull City attack 1.19 + Derby defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Derby scores more

44%

level

27%

Hull City scores more

30%

Derby at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44

A. Kamara

Hull City · M

7.9

Match Events

46'

A. Ömür← G. Puerta

46'

K. Palmer← R. Slater

57'

X. Simons↳ M. Belloumi

59'

D. Brown← J. Yates

60'

B. Osborn← K. Goudmijn

60'

C. Blackett-Taylor← N. Mendez-Laing

64'

66'

72'

77'

82'

M. Burstow← M. Belloumi

89'

L. Thompson← M. Harness

89'

N. Phillips← D. Brown

90+4'

Craig Forsyth

90+6'

João Pedro Galvão

90+1'

Mason Burstow

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerbyHull

Overview

42%Possession58%

14Total Shots11

0.63Expected Goals (xG)1.08

5Corners3

10Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots11

3On Target5

5Off Target4

6Blocked2

9Inside Box6

5Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

342Total Passes502

261Accurate Passes425

76%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

-0.19Goals Prevented-0.19

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1