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Hull City vs Derby — Championship 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Derby
Derby
T. Kane 53'
F. Jozefzoon 88'
M. Waghorn 23' (pen)
9/1/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 6KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

Hull City40%
×Draw27%
Derby32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.31
Derby
1.14

Hull City creates 15% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 45 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.31
Derby
1.01

allows per match

Hull City
1.26
Derby
1.32

finishing

Hull City-0.12scores less
Derby+0.28scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
68%
Hull City or Derby
73%
Draw or Derby
60%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
18%
Derby wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
73%
Hull City 2+ goals
38%
Hull City 3+ goals
14%
Derby 1+ goals
68%
Derby 2+ goals
32%
Derby 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
56%
Derby (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 54 matches

Derby away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.32 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.31 + Derby defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Derby attack 1.01 + Hull City defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hull City scores more
40%
level
27%
Derby scores more
32%

Hull City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
M. HenriksenHull CityHull City · M
7.6

Match Events

14'
Jordy de Wijs
23'
M. WaghornPenalty
53'
T. Kane↳ Evandro
61'
T. Lawrence← M. Waghorn
67'
Reece Burke
73'
W. Keane← F. Campbell
73'
C. Forsyth← S. Malone
78'
Fikayo Tomori
85'
N. Dicko← Evandro
87'
M. Bennett← D. Nugent
88'
Jon Toral← T. Kane
88'
F. Jozefzoon↳ M. Bennett

Possession

46%Hull

Shots

18Hull

Pass accuracy

49%Hull

Statistics

HullDerby
Overview
46%Possession54%
18Total Shots11
7Corners10
10Fouls16
Shots
18Total Shots11
2On Target5
7Off Target4
9Blocked2
12Inside Box6
6Outside Box5
Passing
46%Possession54%
336Total Passes390
233Accurate Passes281
69%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls16
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Hull City vs Derby

Derby beat Hull City 2-1 in Championship on September 1, 2018.

Goals: M. Waghorn (23' pen), T. Kane (53'), F. Jozefzoon (88').

Derby controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 18.

The match was played at KCOM Stadium in Hull.