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Hull City vs Crewe — League One 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Crewe
Crewe
M. Wilks 81'
9/19/2020League OneLeague One · Round 2KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hull City57%
×Draw25%
Crewe17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.56
Crewe
0.73

Hull City creates 114% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 50 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.39
Crewe
0.86

allows per match

Hull City
0.61
Crewe
1.74

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
83%
Hull City or Crewe
75%
Draw or Crewe
43%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
30%
Crewe wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
79%
Hull City 2+ goals
46%
Hull City 3+ goals
21%
Crewe 1+ goals
52%
Crewe 2+ goals
17%
Crewe 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
77%
Crewe (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Crewe away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.74 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.39 + Crewe defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.56

Crewe attack 0.86 + Hull City defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hull City scores more
57%
level
25%
Crewe scores more
17%

Hull City at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
M. IngramHull CityHull City · G
7.7

Match Events

55'
Jordy de Wijs
64'
J. Scott← J. Magennis
64'
T. Mayer← K. Lewis-Potter
67'
Richard Smallwood
70'
Harry Pickering
72'
Callum Elder
77'
C. Ainley← O. Finney
81'
M. Wilks↳ T. Mayer
83'
Thomas Mayer
84'
J. Lundstram← O. Dale
87'
O. Zanzala← L. Murphy
90'
Mallik Wilks

Possession

53%Hull

Shots

12Hull

Pass accuracy

51%Hull

Statistics

HullCrewe
Overview
53%Possession47%
12Total Shots9
7Corners1
24Fouls9
Shots
12Total Shots9
4On Target3
4Off Target4
4Blocked2
7Inside Box8
5Outside Box1
Passing
53%Possession47%
422Total Passes378
318Accurate Passes276
75%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
24Fouls9
5Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Hull City vs Crewe

Hull City beat Crewe 1-0 in League One on September 19, 2020.

Goals: M. Wilks (81').

Hull City controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at KCOM Stadium in Hull.