Crewe 1–2 Hull City: Result & Stats | League One

Crewe

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Hull City

C. Porter 66' (pen)

M. Wilks 90+1'

J. Magennis 71' (pen)

4/2/2021

League One · Round 39Alexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Crewe24%

×Draw23%

Hull City53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.83

Crewe

1.15

Hull City

1.83

Hull City creates 59% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 23 away

1.26

creates per match

2.09

1.58

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Crewe

1.26

Hull City

2.09

allows per match

Crewe

1.58

Hull City

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par

Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

47%

Crewe or Hull City

77%

Draw or Hull City

76%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

9%

Hull City wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

68%

Crewe 2+ goals

32%

Crewe 3+ goals

11%

Hull City 1+ goals

84%

Hull City 2+ goals

54%

Hull City 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

31%

Hull City (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 50 matches

Hull City away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.26 + Hull City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Hull City attack 2.09 + Crewe defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Crewe scores more

24%

level

23%

Hull City scores more

53%

Hull City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

H. Pickering

Crewe · D

7.7

Match Events

63'

George Honeyman

63'

J. Magennis← T. Eaves

64'

Keane Lewis-Potter

66'

C. PorterPenalty

71'

J. MagennisPenalty

73'

Greg Docherty

74'

L. Murphy← C. Ainley

76'

D. Crowley← G. Honeyman

84'

Charlie Kirk

84'

M. Mandron← C. Porter

87'

G. Whyte← K. Lewis-Potter

90+2'

A. Evans← T. Lowery

90+3'

S. Walker← O. Dale

90+1'

M. Wilks↳ G. Docherty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CreweHull

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots14

4Corners6

7Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots14

5On Target8

6Off Target3

4Blocked3

9Inside Box11

6Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

401Total Passes416

314Accurate Passes336

78%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3