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Hull City vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
H. Adelakun 88'
M. Wilks 62'
11/14/2020League OneLeague One · Round 12KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hull City53%
×Draw26%
Burton Albion21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.49
Burton Albion
0.83

Hull City creates 80% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 176 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.39
Burton Albion
1.06

allows per match

Hull City
0.61
Burton Albion
1.59

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
79%
Hull City or Burton Albion
74%
Draw or Burton Albion
47%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
27%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
77%
Hull City 2+ goals
44%
Hull City 3+ goals
19%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
56%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
20%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
72%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 176 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.39 + Burton Albion defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.49

Burton Albion attack 1.06 + Hull City defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hull City scores more
53%
level
26%
Burton Albion scores more
21%

Hull City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
M. WilksHull CityHull City · F
8.2

Match Events

7'
Sam Hughes
18'
Sam Hughes
18'
Sam Hughes
20'
J. O'Toole← I. Vassilev
46'
H. Adelakun← J. Scott
46'
T. Eaves← T. Mayer
53'
Greg Docherty
54'
M. Bostwick← S. Quinn
60'
Hakeeb Adelakun
62'
M. Wilks
66'
M. Samuelsen← G. Docherty
86'
R. Hutchinson← N. Eardley
88'
H. Adelakun↳ C. Elder

Possession

65%Hull

Shots

17Hull

Pass accuracy

57%Hull

Statistics

HullBurton
Overview
65%Possession35%
17Total Shots2
6Corners0
14Fouls13
Shots
17Total Shots2
9On Target0
7Off Target2
1Blocked0
8Inside Box1
9Outside Box1
Passing
65%Possession35%
486Total Passes262
390Accurate Passes158
80%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
0Saves7
Discipline
14Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Hull City vs Burton Albion

Hull City beat Burton Albion 2-0 in League One on November 14, 2020.

Goals: M. Wilks (62'), H. Adelakun (88').

Hull City controlled possession (65%) and registered 17 shots to 2.

The match was played at KCOM Stadium in Hull.