Burton Albion 1–0 Hull City: Result & Stats

Burton Albion

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hull City

J. Smith 90'

2/6/2021

League One · Round 28Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Burton Albion26%

×Draw24%

Hull City49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.69

Burton Albion

1.17

Hull City

1.69

Hull City creates 44% more chances

Season form · 177 home / 23 away

1.29

creates per match

2.09

1.30

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.29

Hull City

2.09

allows per match

Burton Albion

1.30

Hull City

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

51%

Burton Albion or Hull City

76%

Draw or Hull City

74%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

11%

Hull City wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

69%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

33%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

11%

Hull City 1+ goals

82%

Hull City 2+ goals

50%

Hull City 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

35%

Hull City (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.30 · 177 matches

Hull City away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.29 + Hull City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.17

Hull City attack 2.09 + Burton Albion defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Burton Albion scores more

26%

level

24%

Hull City scores more

49%

Hull City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

J. Earl

Burton Albion · D

7.7

Match Events

22'

R. Slater← R. Smallwood

26'

Ryan Edwards

46'

J. Powell← K. Hemmings

61'

Joshua Earl

63'

J. Smith← R. Broom

72'

J. Magennis← D. Crowley

74'

T. Taylor← R. Edwards

77'

J. Scott← M. Wilks

90'

Lewie Coyle

90'

J. Smith↳ J. Parker

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurtonHull

Overview

43%Possession57%

8Total Shots7

1Corners3

15Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots7

2On Target0

5Off Target5

1Blocked2

4Inside Box3

4Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

348Total Passes455

234Accurate Passes344

67%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls17

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4