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Hull City vs Bristol Rovers — League One 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
G. Whyte 60', 32'
3/6/2021League OneLeague One · Round 34KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hull City54%
×Draw26%
Bristol Rovers19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.50
Bristol Rovers
0.78

Hull City creates 92% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 131 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.39
Bristol Rovers
0.95

allows per match

Hull City
0.61
Bristol Rovers
1.60

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
81%
Hull City or Bristol Rovers
74%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
46%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
28%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
78%
Hull City 2+ goals
44%
Hull City 3+ goals
19%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
54%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
18%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
74%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.39 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bristol Rovers attack 0.95 + Hull City defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hull City scores more
54%
level
26%
Bristol Rovers scores more
19%

Hull City at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
G. WhyteHull CityHull City · M
8.3

Match Events

32'
G. Whyte↳ M. Wilks
33'
E. Upson← J. Grant
46'
J. Ayunga← M. Ehmer
58'
Alex Rodman
60'
G. Whyte↳ G. Honeyman
68'
George Honeyman
68'
Luke Leahy
69'
J. Baldwin← C. Harries
69'
Z. Walker← S. Nicholson
69'
J. Daly← B. Hanlan
74'
D. Crowley← G. Honeyman
74'
K. Lewis-Potter← G. Whyte
74'
T. Eaves← J. Magennis
80'
Jacob Greaves
83'
R. Slater← A. Jones
85'
Tom Eaves

Possession

47%Hull

Shots

9Hull

Pass accuracy

51%Hull

Statistics

HullBristol
Overview
47%Possession53%
9Total Shots8
3Corners6
14Fouls21
Shots
9Total Shots8
2On Target3
3Off Target5
4Blocked0
6Inside Box6
3Outside Box2
Passing
47%Possession53%
392Total Passes429
307Accurate Passes320
78%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
14Fouls21
3Yellow Cards2
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Hull City vs Bristol Rovers

Hull City beat Bristol Rovers 2-0 in League One on March 6, 2021.

Goals: G. Whyte (32', 60').

Bristol Rovers controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at KCOM Stadium in Hull.