Bristol Rovers 1–3 Hull City: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Hull City

J. Daly 2'

T. Eaves 90+5'

R. Slater 76'

K. Lewis-Potter 63'

10/27/2020

League One · Round 9Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Bristol Rovers25%

×Draw24%

Hull City51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.71

Bristol Rovers

1.12

Hull City

1.71

Hull City creates 53% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 23 away

1.20

creates per match

2.09

1.34

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.20

Hull City

2.09

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.34

Hull City

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

49%

Bristol Rovers or Hull City

76%

Draw or Hull City

75%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

10%

Hull City wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

67%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

31%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

10%

Hull City 1+ goals

82%

Hull City 2+ goals

51%

Hull City 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

33%

Hull City (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.34 · 133 matches

Hull City away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.20 + Hull City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.12

Hull City attack 2.09 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

25%

level

24%

Hull City scores more

51%

Hull City at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

T. Eaves

Hull City · F

8.2

Match Events

2'

J. Daly

18'

Josh Emmanuel

26'

Luke McCormick

59'

R. Slater← G. Docherty

59'

T. Eaves← J. Magennis

60'

K. Lewis-Potter← H. Adelakun

63'

K. Lewis-Potter↳ J. Emmanuel

72'

E. Öztümer← L. McCormick

76'

R. Slater↳ T. Eaves

82'

S. Nicholson← J. Hare

88'

89'

90'

90'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolHull

Overview

53%Possession47%

3Total Shots10

7Corners6

11Fouls12

Shots

3Total Shots10

2On Target4

0Off Target3

1Blocked3

3Inside Box6

0Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

396Total Passes333

281Accurate Passes233

71%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

4Offsides5