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Hull City vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Bristol City
Bristol City
K. Dowell 78'
O. McBurnie 24'
E. Riis 50'
R. McCrorie 39'
R. Atkinson 33'
2/7/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 31MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 49+ matches

Hull City41%
×Draw27%
Bristol City32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.33
Bristol City
1.16

Hull City creates 15% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 58 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.32
Bristol City
1.05

allows per match

Hull City
1.26
Bristol City
1.35

finishing

Hull City-0.10scores less
Bristol City-0.08on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
68%
Hull City or Bristol City
73%
Draw or Bristol City
59%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
19%
Bristol City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
74%
Hull City 2+ goals
38%
Hull City 3+ goals
15%
Bristol City 1+ goals
69%
Bristol City 2+ goals
32%
Bristol City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
56%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.26 · 49 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.32 + Bristol City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bristol City attack 1.05 + Hull City defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hull City scores more
41%
level
27%
Bristol City scores more
32%

Hull City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
O. McBurnieHull CityHull City · F
7.7

Match Events

24'
O. McBurnie↳ R. Slater
33'
R. Atkinson↳ T. Horvat
39'
R. McCrorie↳ S. Twine
46'
L. Millar← R. Giles
46'
L. Koumas← K. Joseph
50'
E. Riis↳ S. Twine
65'
M. Jacob← J. Egan
65'
K. Dowell← J. Lundstram
70'
M. Sykes← R. McCrorie
71'
S. Armstrong← E. Riis
76'
T. Collyer← P. McNair
78'
K. Dowell↳ J. Gelhardt
79'
J. Williams← S. Morsy
79'
D. Burgzorg← T. Horvat
81'
Toby Collyer
87'
Regan Slater
90+8'
N. Eile← G. Tanner

Possession

68%Hull

Shots

10Hull

Pass accuracy

55%Hull

Statistics

HullBristol
Overview
68%Possession32%
10Total Shots11
1.23Expected Goals (xG)1.94
2Corners4
10Fouls8
Shots
10Total Shots11
5On Target6
1Off Target2
4Blocked3
6Inside Box8
4Outside Box3
Passing
68%Possession32%
661Total Passes319
552Accurate Passes221
84%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
-0.24Goals Prevented-0.24
Discipline
10Fouls8
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Hull City vs Bristol City

Bristol City beat Hull City 3-2 in Championship on February 7, 2026.

Goals: O. McBurnie (24'), R. Atkinson (33'), R. McCrorie (39'), E. Riis (50'), K. Dowell (78').

Hull City controlled possession (68%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at MKM Stadium in Hull.