Bristol City 4–2 Hull City: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Hull City

M. Bird 78'

E. Riis 42', 18'

A. Mehmeti 32'

K. Joseph 90'

J. Gelhardt 3'

8/30/2025

Championship · Round 4Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Bristol City39%

×Draw26%

Hull City35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.29

Bristol City

1.37

Hull City

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 32 away

1.12

creates per match

1.20

1.39

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Bristol City

1.12

Hull City

1.20

allows per match

Bristol City

1.39

Hull City

1.61

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Bristol City-0.12scores less

Hull City+0.05on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

65%

Bristol City or Hull City

74%

Draw or Hull City

61%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

18%

Hull City wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

75%

Bristol City 2+ goals

40%

Bristol City 3+ goals

16%

Hull City 1+ goals

72%

Hull City 2+ goals

37%

Hull City 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

52%

Hull City (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 28 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.61 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.12 + Hull City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.37

Hull City attack 1.20 + Bristol City defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bristol City scores more

39%

level

26%

Hull City scores more

35%

Bristol City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

E. Riis

Bristol City · F

8.9

Match Events

3'

J. Gelhardt↳ B. Akintola

18'

E. Riis↳ R. McCrorie

32'

A. Mehmeti↳ R. McCrorie

42'

E. Riis

46'

K. Joseph← J. Ndala

52'

Babajide David Akintola

55'

Y. Hirakawa← M. Sykes

68'

L. Coyle← B. Akintola

68'

M. Belloumi← C. Drameh

72'

M. Bird← S. Twine

73'

K. Palmer← J. Gelhardt

78'

M. Bird↳ A. Mehmeti

83'

G. Tanner← R. Atkinson

83'

F. Mayulu← A. Mehmeti

84'

H. Cornick← E. Riis

89'

Jason Knight

90'

C. McCarthy← R. Slater

90'

K. Joseph

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolHull

Overview

56%Possession44%

29Total Shots20

3.49Expected Goals (xG)2.60

8Corners5

7Fouls8

Shots

29Total Shots20

5On Target9

9Off Target3

15Blocked8

21Inside Box16

8Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

451Total Passes360

371Accurate Passes269

82%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

-0.50Goals Prevented-0.50

Discipline

7Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3