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Hull City vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bristol City
Bristol City
O. Tufan 17'
N. Wells 62'
8/25/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 4The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 52+ matches

Hull City40%
×Draw27%
Bristol City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.33
Bristol City
1.19

Hull City creates 12% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 61 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.32
Bristol City
1.08

allows per match

Hull City
1.29
Bristol City
1.33

finishing

Hull City-0.13scores less
Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
67%
Hull City or Bristol City
73%
Draw or Bristol City
60%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
18%
Bristol City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
74%
Hull City 2+ goals
38%
Hull City 3+ goals
15%
Bristol City 1+ goals
70%
Bristol City 2+ goals
33%
Bristol City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
55%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.33 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.32 + Bristol City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bristol City attack 1.08 + Hull City defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hull City scores more
40%
level
27%
Bristol City scores more
33%

Hull City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
A. JonesHull CityHull City · D
7.9

Match Events

9'
Jacob Greaves
17'
O. Tufan↳ L. Delap
61'
A. Connolly← L. Delap
61'
Ó. Estupiñán← O. Tufan
62'
N. Wells↳ M. Sykes
65'
Nahki Wells
76'
H. Vaughan← A. Traoré
77'
T. Gardner-Hickman← G. Tanner
77'
H. Cornick← N. Wells
77'
A. Weimann← S. Bell
80'
H. Roberts← A. Weimann
82'
Taylor Gardner-Hickman
90'
C. Christie← L. Coyle
90'
A. Mehmeti← M. Sykes

Possession

62%Hull

Shots

13Hull

Pass accuracy

54%Hull

Statistics

HullBristol
Overview
62%Possession38%
13Total Shots19
1.48Expected Goals (xG)3.62
4Corners5
5Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots19
9On Target5
1Off Target7
3Blocked7
7Inside Box15
6Outside Box4
Passing
62%Possession38%
663Total Passes392
581Accurate Passes292
88%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
4Saves8
Discipline
5Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides4

Championship: Hull City 1–1 Bristol City

Hull City and Bristol City drew 1-1 in Championship on August 25, 2023.

Goals: O. Tufan (17'), N. Wells (62').

Hull City controlled possession (62%) and registered 13 shots to 19.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.