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Hull City vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bristol City
Bristol City
G. Honeyman 79'
R. Longman 3'
M. James 90+1'
A. Semenyo 54'
12/11/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 22The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 54+ matches

Hull City40%
×Draw27%
Bristol City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.33
Bristol City
1.18

Hull City creates 13% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 62 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.31
Bristol City
1.10

allows per match

Hull City
1.26
Bristol City
1.34

finishing

Hull City-0.12scores less
Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
67%
Hull City or Bristol City
73%
Draw or Bristol City
60%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
18%
Bristol City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
74%
Hull City 2+ goals
38%
Hull City 3+ goals
15%
Bristol City 1+ goals
69%
Bristol City 2+ goals
33%
Bristol City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
55%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 54 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.31 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Hull City defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hull City scores more
40%
level
27%
Bristol City scores more
33%

Hull City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
M. JamesBristol CityBristol City · M
7.9

Match Events

3'
R. Longman↳ M. Wilks
32'
G. Tanner← A. Scott
54'
A. Semenyo
59'
Tomáš Kalas
64'
N. Wells← C. Martin
65'
Han-Noah Massengo
69'
T. Eaves← J. Magennis
70'
T. Smith← M. Wilks
79'
G. Honeyman
82'
R. Williams← R. Longman
82'
A. Benarous← R. Atkinson
84'
Richard Smallwood
90+1'
M. James↳ T. Kalas

Possession

50%Hull

Shots

13Hull

Pass accuracy

50%Hull

Statistics

HullBristol
Overview
50%Possession50%
13Total Shots10
1Corners5
9Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots10
5On Target3
6Off Target4
2Blocked3
10Inside Box7
3Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
410Total Passes419
297Accurate Passes301
72%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
5Offsides2

Match Recap: Hull City vs Bristol City

Hull City and Bristol City drew 2-2 in Championship on December 11, 2021.

Goals: R. Longman (3'), A. Semenyo (54'), G. Honeyman (79'), M. James (90+1').

Hull City controlled possession (50%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.