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Hull City vs Birmingham — Championship 2025

Hull City
Hull City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Birmingham
Birmingham
4/18/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 43MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Hull City40%
×Draw30%
Birmingham31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.15
Birmingham
0.98

Hull City creates 17% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.31
Birmingham
0.79

allows per match

Hull City
1.17
Birmingham
0.98

finishing

Hull City-0.23scores less
Birmingham-0.46scores less

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
69%
Hull City or Birmingham
70%
Draw or Birmingham
60%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
17%
Birmingham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
68%
Hull City 2+ goals
32%
Hull City 3+ goals
11%
Birmingham 1+ goals
62%
Birmingham 2+ goals
26%
Birmingham 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
56%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.98 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.31 + Birmingham defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.15

Birmingham attack 0.79 + Hull City defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hull City scores more
40%
level
30%
Birmingham scores more
31%

Hull City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hull City vs Birmingham

Hull City and Birmingham drew 1-1 in Championship on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at MKM Stadium in Hull.