Birmingham 2–3 Hull City: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Hull City

10/18/2025

Championship · Round 10St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Birmingham47%

×Draw24%

Hull City29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.27

Birmingham

1.70

Hull City

1.27

Birmingham creates 34% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 21 away

1.78

creates per match

1.26

1.29

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Birmingham

1.78

Hull City

1.26

allows per match

Birmingham

1.29

Hull City

1.61

-0.61scores less than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Birmingham-0.61scores less

Hull City-0.02on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

71%

Birmingham or Hull City

76%

Draw or Hull City

53%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

25%

Hull City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

82%

Birmingham 2+ goals

51%

Birmingham 3+ goals

24%

Hull City 1+ goals

72%

Hull City 2+ goals

36%

Hull City 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

62%

Hull City (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.29 · 6 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.61 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.78 + Hull City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.70

Hull City attack 1.26 + Birmingham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Birmingham scores more

47%

level

24%

Hull City scores more

29%

Birmingham at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff